Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Just a correction but maybe more in the US
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Caution Warranted
Marc Faber
"The “Skyscraper Indicator”, used by Edward Dewey in the 1940s, correlates human optimism to the number of high-rise buildings erected. Simply put, when humans are optimistic, they build toward the sky. Major economic downturns usually follow. Examples include: Empire State Building proposed in 1929, Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur in 1997 (Asian Crises of 1997), and Burj Dubai in 2003 (the Dubai market is now down over 78% since last November). Now, according to the China Daily, “at least 3,000 high-rise buildings have been built in Shanghai with another 2,000 in the works. Shanghai is also home to China's tallest building and a new building now under construction will be the world's tallest.” This indicator would imply a major sell-off. Recent reports from China describe novice investors creating hour-long lines outside of stockbroker offices. The two mainland Chinese markets are “running at triple the daily volume of just last year.” In manias throughout history, waves of neophytes are the last to join a market before it crashes. Also in Asia, the Vietnam stock market is up ~40% in 2007 and ~180% since 2006."
http://china.seekingalpha.com/article/25613
Thursday, February 15, 2007
investor advocate Larry Sucharow
Lindsay sits down with the nicest guy in a power-suit: investor advocate Larry Sucharow, Managing Partner of Labaton Sucharow & Rudoff LLP.
Monday, February 12, 2007
How to Profit from India
Aaron Chaze has 15 years of research and analytical experience in India and Canada
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2007/Chaze.html
Monday, February 5, 2007
Interesting tidbit from Cramer
Nevertheless, there are enough mutual funds out there that simply will not buy decelerating revenue growth, including many that only buy ARG, or accelerating revenue growth,.
But that doesn't mean you should give up on Google. I still believe the stock can get to $600, but it won't get there as quickly as when it was an accelerating story.
The reason? It's harder to value. Let's contrast it with eBay (EBAY - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), both of which now sell at a higher multiple to earnings than Google. That's amazing, because both are mediocre compared with the earnings machine that is Google. But they are broken stories that might get fixed, so we will pay more for them because they can accelerate.
Saturday, February 3, 2007
About Getting Rich From Real Estate
I read this article about people said to be Canada's best individual investors and one guy said that he essentially doubled his net-worth through luck by putting a down-payment on a couple of condos that seemed reasonably priced that doubled in a few years or so. Also some in my family in California who run businesses have said to me that owning a business didn't make them rich or that it wouldn't make you rich, but that owning property does. So I realized that when one buys property such as a house, one is essentially buying an asset on massive margin. In the same sense that one could buy stocks on borrowed money, you're buying a house through usually 75-90% debt. So naturally if it appreciates in value you're really up a lot in the same way you could be if your borrowed stocks were up a lot. About the only difference is that people seem to think that real-estate never goes down in value (which is false) and that they are generally less volatile in terms of price-changes than stocks.
Commodities and Emerging Markets
Emerging markets such as India and China offer huge opportunities and growth rates that dwarf "developed" economies. These countries are also sufficiently protectionist to give their smaller companies an advantage over companies like Walmart and Starbucks.
As for commodities, a severe lack of infrastructure investments as well as huge global growth in demand means energy and water investments (as well as pure infrastructure investments) will do well going forward. Since food requires huge amounts of both water and energy and lately has been recruited as a form of energy in the form of biofuels, these will go up and up in the years to come. When it comes to food though I would only invest in the actual commodity and not the companies because their costs will go up. Oh, and don't forget about excess, wasteful consumption depleting all of these which of course adds to the problem.