Thursday, August 23, 2007

Blog moving to timothypereira.wordpress.com

I will no longer be posting here. go to timothypereira.wordpress.com

Thursday, August 16, 2007

I'm calling a short-term tradable bottom at a minimum and would implore people to buy tech stocks, and Chinese consumer spending related stocks

There is serious value here in some areas. I would be buying BIDU, LFC, AAPL, GOOG in that order of preference, among many others... Since I don't have much cash on the sidelines I'm only going to pick up BIDU.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

The Street.com (TSCM) is a buy here

I put in a buy order for The Street.com (TSCM) at $9.80. This company will benefit greatly from current innovation in internet video advertising, is cheap at a trailing p/e of roughly 20 and the chart looks great. It's also Jim Cramer's company (of CNBC's Mad Money) and his analysis is a big draw in terms of audience. I may not get a piece of this company at my buy price because it's already up to $9.99 in after-hours trading...

12 months Ending 2006-12-31 12 months Ending 2005-12-31 12 months Ending 2004-12-31 12 months Ending 2003-12-31 12 months Ending 2002-12-31 12 months Ending 2001-12-31
EPS 0.47 0.22 0.13 -0.04 -0.38 -0.98


3 months Ending 2007-06-30 3 months Ending 2007-03-31 3 months Ending 2006-12-31 3 months Ending 2006-09-30 3 months Ending 2006-06-30
EPS
0.12 0.11 0.14 0.11 0.12

The companies earnings have been weak lately due to poor performance in subscription revenue. The company is already positioned to catch up in earnings growth fast due to it's focus on advertising revenue and growth in popular content.

Seeking Alpha has a good article on how the company is poised for growth after missing its recent earnings estimates.

Here's an example of The Street.com's content.



TheStreet.com, Inc. is a multimedia provider of business, investment and ratings content. The Company distributes its content to customers through properties, including Websites, e-mail services, print publications, and audio and video programming. It also syndicates content for distribution by other media companies.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Very Thoughtful Interview on Chinese Economy

"is China’s roaring economy a bubble or a brick? We’ll ask a leading expert on China’s economy, Wing Thye Woo of the Brookings Institution, to help us make sense of it all."

Interview begins at 11 minutes.


Marc Faber Says U.S. Stocks Are at Beginning of Bear Market

This interview must be listened to
link to video

Sunday, August 12, 2007

Bought big positions in Baidu (BIDU)

Bought almost a 50% position in my portfolio of Baidu (BIDU) and doubled the position to 10% in a client portfolio. I expect gains of at least 50% next year in both China Life Insurance (LFC) and BIDU.

"Baidu.com, Inc. provides Chinese language Internet search services. Its services enable users to find relevant information online, including Web pages, news, images, and multimedia files through its Web site links."

Friday, August 10, 2007

Fuel Tech

In my defence (for selling), Fuel Tech has made less revenue and profit in every quarter since September '06 (this streak could extend further but I haven't looked further for data).

PERIOD ENDING30-Jun-0731-Mar-0731-Dec-0630-Sep-06
Total Revenue16,210 16,262 18,062 20,173
Cost of Revenue9,083 8,957 9,219 10,042
Gross Profit7,127 7,305 8,843 10,131


It is also on track to make less revenue and profit in '07 compared to '06 though this might not end up being true since apparently Q4 is supposed to end full with backlogged orders. Also, in a business like this revenue is clumpy and inconsistent. However, the shares trade like investors are expecting some huge breakout in orders, possibly from China or because of some hugely increased acceptance
of the company's technology in general or maybe because greenhouse gas emissions may become further regulated, or maybe that the company will be bought out. I don't think the company will be bought out much higher than at the price the stock trades at today.

The bottom line is that I'm trying to retroactively justify my selling of this company and am hoping that I'll get a chance to pick it up later in the year, possibly during a further market downturn or if Q3 is going to bring back some reflection of pessimism in the shares.