summary of recent thoughts

In my opinion India's political stability is exaggerated, risk is high with high expectations for growth and a shift from a mostly services-driven economy to more manufacturing and infrastructure-related investments. This portends more protests:

http://www.thesouthasian.org/archives/2006/post_12.html
http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=13620
http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2007-03-20T205251Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-291697-1.xml

I'm not saying that India will not grow to become one of the largest economies in the world, but right now I think the risk/reward isn't high enough.

China on the other hand is trying to switch from a manufacturing, investment and exporting economy to more services so I think a lot of heavy lifting is over. There is risk of a slowdown in exports but I think this is mostly priced in.

The Internet sector will be the darling of western stock markets again and there will be a boom in hot IPOs.

Gold is a necessary risk-hedge and I think a minimum of 10% in a portfolio is reasonable.

Cash is also necessary given current risks and I think 10% is about right there also.

Finally, commodities will certainly go up in the future and this includes agricultural ones.

building up cash and diversifying a bit out of emerging markets

I'm selling all Indian stocks, China Life (insurance), and some stocks I don't really absolutely want to have. I am buying more Google. I already bought Apple and more gold last week and sold Interface and a few others.

Must read articles from Marc Faber

Stepping aside from the investment markets!

Most investors are heading for huge losses

Reasons for chinese/global stock market correction

that I can think of:
possibility of recession in US
carry trade in yen implodes a tiny bit
red shares to list on mainland
interest rate rises in india
maybe too much optimism? a bit thrown out
intentional slowing down of growth

Mobile/Everywhere/Everything Internet

The advent of the Mobile/Everywhere/Everything Internet is going to be at least half as big as the original internet...

The First Internet Marketing Conference, San Francisco, 1994

In November 1994, Internet commercialization pioneer Ken McCarthy organized the first conference ever held that focused exclusively on the commercial potential of the web. This rare footage, which documents the very earliest days of the web industry, is an important artifact in the history of technology. After introductory remarks by Ken, Marc Andreessen, the 23 year old co-founder of Netscape, describes how the first web browser came into being and shares his vision of the future of the network which was destined to change the world forever.

Marc Faber must be listened to

January 2007 interview ... insights on global investing, gold, oil, fed policy, liquidity