Saturday, March 24, 2007

summary of recent thoughts

In my opinion India's political stability is exaggerated, risk is high with high expectations for growth and a shift from a mostly services-driven economy to more manufacturing and infrastructure-related investments. This portends more protests:

http://www.thesouthasian.org/archives/2006/post_12.html
http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=13620
http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2007-03-20T205251Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-291697-1.xml

I'm not saying that India will not grow to become one of the largest economies in the world, but right now I think the risk/reward isn't high enough.

China on the other hand is trying to switch from a manufacturing, investment and exporting economy to more services so I think a lot of heavy lifting is over. There is risk of a slowdown in exports but I think this is mostly priced in.

The Internet sector will be the darling of western stock markets again and there will be a boom in hot IPOs.

Gold is a necessary risk-hedge and I think a minimum of 10% in a portfolio is reasonable.

Cash is also necessary given current risks and I think 10% is about right there also.

Finally, commodities will certainly go up in the future and this includes agricultural ones.

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